Initial Conditions Were...

Initial Investment0
Investment Start Age35
Monthly Investment Amt400
Retirement Begin Age65
 
AFTER RETIREMENT
Withdraw the lesser of 7.50 Percent Each Year
BUT ...
   Withdraw At Least $15,000 Each Year
But...
   No More Than $25,000 Each Year


SCENARIO OUTCOMES

Using Dow Jones historical year-end values for 1900 - 2015.
All Investments/Withdrawals assumed to be made at end of year.

Scenario IF
Market Performance
Replicates
YOU PUT IN PORTFOLIO VALUE
At End of Accumulation Period
TOTAL AMT
WITHDRAWN
FUNDS ALL
GONE @ AGE
FUNDS REMAINING
(if any)
Initial Investment Total Investments
Throughout Years
1 1900 - 19500144,000408,130194,022760
2 1901 - 19510144,000263,811169,786750
3 1902 - 19520144,000123,795165,000750
4 1903 - 19530144,00095,529180,000760
5 1904 - 19540144,000154,297195,450770
6 1905 - 19550144,000158,260212,168780
7 1906 - 19560144,000216,812215,032780
8 1907 - 19570144,000266,249214,969780
9 1908 - 19580144,000173,868225,263790
10 1909 - 19590144,000218,918226,419790
11 1910 - 19600144,000210,101255,758810
12 1911 - 19610144,000180,490285,000830
13 1912 - 19620144,000150,983315,0008524,250
14 1913 - 19630144,000160,745315,00085103,113
15 1914 - 19640144,000179,467318,61685179,773
16 1915 - 19650144,000192,618329,89685213,508
17 1916 - 19660144,000239,343355,45385183,282
18 1917 - 19670144,000215,824375,62785212,250
19 1918 - 19680144,000213,713394,56985216,524
20 1919 - 19690144,000203,696416,08685179,245
21 1920 - 19700144,000225,836439,81185185,153
22 1921 - 19710144,000254,722451,86585190,856
23 1922 - 19720144,000280,304462,15785215,889
24 1923 - 19730144,000294,489475,29085182,365
25 1924 - 19740144,000274,011483,92985133,940
26 1925 - 19750144,000383,301492,51285188,489
27 1926 - 19760144,000452,890495,05885231,449
28 1927 - 19770144,000452,872496,74385193,503
29 1928 - 19780144,000389,390495,38985195,137
30 1929 - 19790144,000517,257499,59885214,877
31 1930 - 19800144,000593,777498,95985247,906
32 1931 - 19810144,000525,394497,14885216,753
33 1932 - 19820144,000583,365483,49185230,922
34 1933 - 19830144,000472,875460,89985230,547
35 1934 - 19840144,000521,366451,63685203,277
36 1935 - 19850144,000561,886438,00185234,472
37 1936 - 19860144,000595,583430,68385266,050
38 1937 - 19870144,000466,796428,73085255,683
39 1938 - 19880144,000506,513421,12185262,293
40 1939 - 19890144,000503,751416,96685309,633
41 1940 - 19900144,000406,356415,56085274,479
42 1941 - 19910144,000399,900411,38885305,692
43 1942 - 19920144,000390,515401,89985287,309
44 1943 - 19930144,000411,242391,12785294,520
45 1944 - 19940144,000317,663382,62085272,801
46 1945 - 19950144,000215,340384,18485342,626
47 1946 - 19960144,000281,369401,28885412,403
48 1947 - 19970144,000309,278408,10385480,378
49 1948 - 19980144,000238,518412,71485534,746
50 1949 - 19990144,000214,093420,29185639,450
51 1950 - 20000144,000207,737431,32585581,884
52 1951 - 20010144,000223,804444,82485527,883
53 1952 - 20020144,000192,389459,75485433,685
54 1953 - 20030144,000217,659476,74985532,030
55 1954 - 20040144,000245,086488,20985533,515
56 1955 - 20050144,000226,401501,68985543,342
57 1956 - 20060144,000278,674514,50985663,758
58 1957 - 20070144,000328,190521,99385743,258
59 1958 - 20080144,000319,112523,68485508,569
60 1959 - 20090144,000343,690525,00085638,994
61 1960 - 20100144,000421,781525,00085753,092
62 1961 - 20110144,000387,864525,00085805,831
63 1962 - 20120144,000450,542525,00085895,695
64 1963 - 20130144,000449,899525,000851,133,927
65 1964 - 20140144,000492,658525,000851,239,633
66 1965 - 20150144,000486,708525,000851,228,621


* DJIA = the historical year end values of the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the years 1900 through 2015

Dont believe these results?

Click on any scenario time period to see the detail for those years.

SUMMARY OF RESULTS
Age
At Which
Money Ran Out
Number
of times
It Happened
Percent
Of Total
Cumulative
Percent
7523.0 3.0
7623.0 6.1
7711.5 7.6
7834.5 12.1
7923.0 15.2
8111.5 16.7
8311.5 18.2
855481.8 100.0
Total Number
of
Market Scenarios
66100%


How To Interpret The Table Above

Here are the results after running your input data values against 66 different historical scenarios of Dow Jones averages..

3% of the scenarios were out of money by age 75.
17% of the scenarios were out of money by age 81.
82% of the scenarios still had money remaining after age 85.


Note that most scenarios in which you run out of money before age 85 are affected by the 1929-1932 Great Depression stock debacle. Over those four years, the market lost 17%, 34%, 52% and 23% respectively. Heavy losses four years in a row is tough to overcome, especially if the first year of your retirement was 1929. Your portfolio suffered a large market loss AND a withdrawal loss.

There has only been that one period where the market lost value four years in a row.

Conversley, the market has gained value for four (or more) years in a row, 7 times, the last period being 2009--2015.